History as a Predictor: An Empirical Examination of Impact of Knowledge
Abstract
Inventors being bounded rational rely on certain heuristics to select knowledge for recombination to generate innovations. This paper suggests that information about historical success is used as one such heuristic. I propose that historical success of knowledge, of inventors, and of technological areas influence the current impact of the knowledge. These hypotheses are supported in the context of patent data in a chemical and pharmaceutical firm. Further, different operationalization of historical success is used to examine the hypotheses in a limited posthoc analysis. And in another posthoc analysis, I find that the historical success of inventor and technology areas influence the rate of initial impact of knowledge.